万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数「12月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（试行版）」
今天给大家普及一下万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数「12月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（试行版）」相关知识，最近很多在问万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数「12月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（试行版）」，希望能帮助到您。
声明：从2016年7月开始，中国新经济指数报告由万事达卡冠名，指数名称正式更名为：万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数。
一、指数概览
2016年12月，万事达卡财新BBD中国的新经济指数（NEI）为32.5，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为32.5%。该值较11月的30.4上升2.1个百分点，达到了新经济指数发布以来的最高水平（图1）。NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见第二部分和《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。12月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的上升。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大，在经过上个月的下跌后，本月上升至38.8，达到了NEI发布以来的最高值（图2）。劳动力投入指数从下跌至26.0，上月为27.8，延续了从今年3月以来的下跌趋势，已经达到了新经济指数公布以来的最低值。科技投入指数有所上升，本月为34.1。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.8，2.4，和0.5个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对12月NEI变化的绝对贡献值为2.1（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，12月为总指数贡献了13.5个百分点，比11月略有下降，但仍然达到了今年2月以来的次高水平。高端装备制造业的贡献排名第二，本月贡献5个百分点，生物医药产业排名第三，贡献3.8个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2016年12月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平比上月略有下降，为8360元每月（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
12月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例进一步下降，为24.9%，新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重从29.1%略降为27.0%。新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平继续上升，12月新经济入职工资 “溢价”为8.2%（图6）。
四、劳动力需求形式
从2016年9月起，新经济指数开始持续挖掘大数据中隐含的一些领先指标。本月我们对2016年的劳动力需求情况进行一系列总结。图7为中大型城市新入职员工平均工资在一年中的增长率（为了避免奇异值，我们使用2016年第四季度平均值除以2015年第四季度平均值），结果显示，中西部欠发达省的省会占据了新入职员工工资上涨最快的十大城市中的六席，而新入职员工工资上涨最慢的十大城市则几乎全部是东部沿海城市与东北地区。这与2016年以来东部发达地区产业进一步向中西部转移的现象相吻合。
分行业的新入职员工工资上涨情况如图8所示。图8中，我们选择了招聘人数最多的30大行业，并列出其中工资增速较快的十大行业与较慢的十大行业。可以发现，从2010年左右开始大放异彩的互联网、IT服务行业在2016年的工资增速出现了显著下降，工资的绝对水平甚至也开始下降；与电商相关的物流行业工资也出现了停滞。与此同时，零售行业、耐用投资品行业与医疗行业的工资水平则出现了较快上升。值得注意的是，中西部城市和东部城市在行业工资增长速度上有明显差异，中西部城市的IT服务、物流业工资增长很快，而东部城市该行业的工资已经出现下降。
不同教育程度的新入职员工工资上涨程度如图9所示。我们将招聘广告中的最低学历要求作为划分标准，观察不同技能需求的岗位的新入职员工工资变化。结果发现，高中及以下、大专、本科和硕士及以上这四层技能需求的岗位工资比例约为1:1.1:1.6:2，从大专到本科，从本科到研究生。纵向上看，2016年新入职员工工资上涨最快的是硕士及以上教育程度需求的岗位，上升了6.8%，其次是高中及以下教育程度需求的岗位，上升了5.2%。大专和本科需求的岗位分别上升了1%和4.6%。从中我们可以发现，随着低技能劳动力的供给萎缩和高技能岗位的需求扩张，高技能和低技能岗位的工资上涨较快。相比之下，中等技能需求的岗位工资上涨较慢。
值得注意的是，“新岗位”的比例变化受季节因素的影响较大，例如春节后的岗位中属于“新岗位”的比例较高，我们接下来还将对这个指标进行深入研究。
五、城市新经济排名
2016年12月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、北京、深圳、重庆与广州排名前五，该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11是从2016年6月到2016年12月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为杭州、北京、上海、深圳、广州。
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万事达卡
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财新智库
财新智库莫尼塔董事长兼首席经济学家 沈明高
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公关总监 马玲
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BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
电话： 86-28-65290823
信息图形设计 邬忆
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版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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报告英文版：
MasterCard Caixin BBD China NewEconomy Index
In an effort to increase transparency on the structural changes underway in China’s economy, the MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index (NEI) was established. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publicly released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
Overview
In December 2016, the MasterCard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 32.5, indicating that the New Economy inputs accounted for 32.5% of overall economic input activities that month. This reading recorded a 210 basis point increase from November, reaching a new high since the release of the NEI (Chart 1).
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. Among the primary inputs, the increase in the December NEI reading came primarily from a rise in capital investment. In 2H16, capital investment has fluctuated greatly, with a substantial increase to 38.8 in December after a 31.9 reading in November, a high on the year (Chart 2). The labor input index fell to 26.0, down from 27.8 last month, continuing a declining trend since March and marks the lowest reading since the NEI has been released. The technology input reading increased to 34.1.
Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.9, 2.4 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weightings, the net result for the NEI was a 2.1 pp increase in December from November figures (Chart 3).
Lookingat the sub-sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of theNew Economy Index, contributing 13.8 pp to NEI, the highest figure sinceFebruary. Finance & Legal Services remained at second, contributing 6.1percentage points. The third largest contributor was biotech with 3.8 pp (Chart4).
NewEconomy Employment
In December 2016, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 8,360 per month, a drop from November figures (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 24.9% of total hiring in December, continuing the decline from previous months. The compensation share of New Economy sectors declined again, from 29.1% to 27.0%. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 8.2% as compared to economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6).
Labor Demand
From September onwards, we have used new data sources to examine several leading indicators in labor demand. This month, we have provided a series of summaries regarding labor demand in 2016. Chart 7 indicates the average annual growth rate for wages of new recruits in medium to large sized cities. We applied 4Q16 average figures pided by 4Q15 average to provide the growth rate. The conclusion is that central and western regions occupied 6 of the top 10 cities with the largest growth rates among salaries for new recruits. Meanwhile, the bottom 10 cities with the slowest salary increases are all concentrated in coastal and northeastern cities. This is consistent with a trend of industry and production moving to central and western regions in 2016.
In Chart 8, we show the salary increases for new recruits in specific industries. We select the 30 largest industries on the basis of highest new recruits and listed the top 10 industries with the fastest wage growth and the top 10 industries with the slowest wage growth. The Internet & IT Service industries, booming since around 2010, have observed the highest wage drop in 2016, and even the level of salaries has declined. Meanwhile, e-commerce related logistics also experienced wage stagnation. At the same time, wage levels have increased rapidly in the retail, consumer durable goods, and medical industry. It is noteworthy that wage growth rates have varied significantly in central & western cities as compared to eastern cities. In central & western cities, IT services and logistics services have seen particularly large wage growth rates while eastern cities have seen wages decline in those same industries.
We highlight the education level of new hires to show the extent of entry-level salary changes (Chart 9). To observe salary changes of new hires based on education level, we analyzed the minimum academic requirement in job advertisements. Pay scale of the four education categories - high school education and below, junior college education, college education and postgraduate education. With high school education as a base, junior college was 1.1, college graduate was 1.6, and postgraduate was 2.0.
In terms of 2016 new hire wage growth, those with postgraduate education have seen the largest salary growth at 6.8% Y/Y. High School and below saw growth of 5.2% while jobs requiring college and undergraduate education have seen increases of 1.0% and 4.6%, respectively. From this, we can see that with low-skilled labor supply shrinking and high-skilled labor demand increasing, high-skilled and low-skilled wage increases have surpassed those mid-skill labor forces.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Basedon overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities are shown in Chart 10.The top five cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing and Guangzhou. Therankings are based on a moving average of the percentile rank of indicators forthe city in the past 6 months.
When looking at the city NEI rankings based on average NEI from June to December of 2016, the top five are Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou (Chart 11).
For further information please contact:
MasterCard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Vice President of Public Relations
Tel:86-10-8519-9304
Email: [email protected]
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Minggao Shen, President & Chief Economist
Tel:86-10-8104-8016
Email: [email protected]
Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel:86-10-8590-5204
Email: [email protected]
BBD
Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel： 86-28-65290823
Email：[email protected]
Wu Yi, Data & ChartDesigner
Tel: 86-28-65290823
Email: [email protected]
The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
Caixin Media is China"s leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.
About MasterCard
MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
